Washington Capitals Hockey

         Friday, March 28, 2008          

Ah Ah Ah, Two is the Number of the Day

I was looking for a video or sound clip but came up empty. This was the best I could do for the number two. That's how many points the Caps came away with, leaving them that many points behind Carolina, Philadelphia, and Boston. Hence, two - the number of the day.

Another number that's a bit worrisome for the Capitals is one. That's how many games all three of those teams have in hand over the Capitals, who are 11-4-0 since the trade deadline. Although Washington remains on the outside looking in with Boston winning as well, there are three teams the Caps can catch, not just one - essentially tripling their chance of making the postseason, although tiebreakers decrease the odds just a bit.

So what will it take for the Capitals to get in? First we must examine the tiebreaking scenarios:

1. Tiebreaker 1 - WINS: The Capitals are currently tied with both Boston and Philly, but trail the Hurricanes by 2. A tie in wins leads to the next tiebreaker.
2. Tiebreaker 2 - HEAD TO HEAD RECORD: Here is where the Caps are in a ton of trouble. Philly has 5 points to Washington's 4. Boston does too. Carolina has 9 points to Washington's 6, so even with a win in the remaining game the Capitals can't catch the 'Canes. It is impossible for the Caps to win any of these tiebreakers.
3. Tiebreaker 3 - GOALS FOR vs. GOALS AGAINST: It can't make it this far, but if it did the Capitals could be alright. Current differentials - Philadelphia (+12), Washington (even), Carolina (-2), Boston (-10).

Now let's look at what-ifs. The chart below illustrates the help the Capitals need depending on their record in the four remaining games:

As far as the schedule goes, the Bruins and Flyers are stacked. Boston faces New Jersey, Ottawa twice, and Buffalo twice. Philadelphia gets New Jersey twice, Pittsburgh twice, and the Islanders. Carolina, like Washington, gets to beat up on the Southeast Division the rest of the way.

The Capitals are clearly still in the hunt but they must expect to win no fewer three the rest of the way. One thing that is awfully encouraging is how the Capitals are not withering away the way Buffalo has. The Caps' comeback doesn't appear to be falling short (yet) the way Florida's and Toronto's has. And most importantly, they have responded despite losing a game to the refs, losing a game to an "own goal", and losing a game by five to another young team who isn't headed for the postseason.