Tuesday, March 11, 2008
A Positive Spin
Yesterday, I took a look at the reality of Washington's
seven point deficit in the Southeast Division. Unfortunately, as one
might expect when having to make up seven points in 12 games, things
are not looking good on "Fun Street."
But because Washington has two head-to-head matchups
with Carolina plus a game in hand, they still have a reasonable shot at
surpassing the Hurricanes for a spot in the postseason. Of course the
Capitals MUST win both those head-to-head games. If they do, let's look
at what can happen.
So the two wins over Carolina lift the Capitals to
within three points of the 'Canes with one game in hand. The Caps would
do themselves a huge favor by winning that extra game. Let's say they
do. Now the Capitals need to make up just one point with nine other
games left for each team to play.
Suddenly, the task at hand seems within reach -- if the Capitals
win all three of those games (in regulation vs. Carolina.) One thing to
keep in mind, however, is the league's tiebreaking method.
If the Capitals and Hurricanes are to end up with an
identical number of points, the first tiebreaker used is the number of
wins. If the Capitals are to win all three of the aforementioned games,
they would still have two fewer victories than Carolina. This means the
Capitals would have to make up either one point and two wins or two points on
Carolina in the nine remaining games to make the playoffs.
But what happens if the Capitals and Hurricanes finish
the season with the same number of points and wins? The second
tiebreaker is points in head-to-head contests. If Washington wins both
remaining head-to-head to games in regulation, both teams will have
earned eight points in the eight games between the clubs. Since that
does not resolve the stalemate, now we're looking at the the third
tiebreaker.
The third tiebreaker is goal differential. Currently the
Capitals have scored 203 goals and allowed 209, a differential of -6.
Carolina has scored 216 and allowed 221, a differential of -5. This is
one spot that would not be overly difficult for the Capitals to
overcome, assuming of course all three "must-wins" are accomplished.
Despite the daunting scope of having to gain seven or
eight points in two handfuls and a pair of toes worth of games, when
broken down into minutaie all hope is not lost. It has to be a one game
at a time mentality for the Capitals. If that approach is successfully
maintained, and with just a very small bit of help from other teams,
the Capitals may just be in control of their own destiny.
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