Monday, March 3, 2008

Upon Further Examination...

Saturday night's defeat at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs marked one of those "one step forward, one step back" kind of deals for the Washington Capitals. After closing within three points of Carolina, the Caps were back to five behind just like that. With little more than a month and my lucky number (16) of games remaining, it has become evident that the road to the playoffs is through Carolina. Squeaking into the eighth seed is unrealistic at this point -- too many teams to pass, too many of them playing well.

So in knowing that the Capitals must overtake the Hurricanes to make the show, let's take a look at what's left for both teams and hopefully find a bit of statistical optimism for Washington.

THE SCHEDULES:

• Carolina has 14 games remaining, half at home. The combined winning percentage (weighted to reflect multiple games against the same team) of their remaining opponents is .513
• Washington has 16 games remaining, half at home. Combined weighted winning percentage of remaining opponents is .532

ADVANTAGE: Carolina

SEASON PERFORMANCE VERSUS REMAINING OPPONENTS:

• Carolina has faced six of their eight remaining opponents previously this season. Against these teams, their weighted winning percentage is .591 and they are sporting a losing record against one of the six teams.
• Washington has already faced seven of their ten remaining opponents. Against these teams, their weighted winning percentage is .430 including a losing record against six of the seven teams.

ADVANTAGE: Carolina

RECENT RECORD:

• Carolina made a significant trade which appeared to benefit the 'Canes long-term, not this year. They also lost their leader, Rod Brind'Amour for the season. Yet, Carolina is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games.
• Washington has struggled of late and appear to have peaked too early in the season. The Caps have gone 4-4-3 in their last 11 games.

ADVANTAGE: Carolina

This concise analysis pretty much tells the story -- and it's not a pleasant one for Washington. The Capitals are set to face teams they have had trouble beating. Carolina, meanwhile, has rolled through their remaining opponents. 

The Capitals will attempt to initiate a much needed winning streak against the Boston Bruins tonight. In a late season scheduling anomaly, this is the first of three meetings with the Bruins over the next two weeks. Not quite what the Capitals want to hear -- they have beaten Boston just once in nine games since the lockout.

On the bright side, Cristobal Huet may assume a heavy workload from this game on. Huet's record this season against the Capitals remaining opponents: 12-6-3 for a .643 win percentage. So just maybe...

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