Monday, February 18, 2008

State of the Union

So here we are two days after a crucial victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning, Olie Kolzig has rediscovered his Vezina-winning form of nearly a decade ago, Alexander Semin has continued his inconsistent brilliance, and the Capitals salvaged a three game in four night Southeast Division roadie when it appeared they were set for another third period collapse.

After being nationally criticized and presumed to be nearing the end of a very nice career, Kolzig has put together five consecutive very good (if not superb) performances. During this stretch in which Olie has gone 3-1-1, his game-by-game save percentages were .917, .912, .939, .929, and .951. He hasn't had even three such games in a row since the first three of the season. Kolzig was the deciding factor in two of the recent wins, the first time we can say that in a long, long time.  

But now that the goaltending is finally coming into place, the scoring has tailed off. (As a Caps fan, you just can't win.) Over their last five games, the Capitals have failed to reach four goals -- the first time they have gone more than three games without accomplishing the feat since their 8-6 romp over Ottawa back on December 29th. Not that it bears worrying over, but their ringleader, Alex Ovechkin, has been held without a point in back to back games for the first time all season. It does make you realize how amazing it is that the guy has been so consistent all year, even in the down times.

One player who the Capitals hoped would provide some additional scoring punch is Eric Fehr. The former first round pick made his season debut alongside Nicklas Backstrom and Ovechkin on the top line, but quickly fell to the second line, then the third, then the fourth and eventually became a healthy scratch -- all in a span of seven games.

Tomas Fleischmann, fresh off a new two year deal, has been entrusted on the first line since the Fehr experiment failed. He has contributed with two goals and an assist in the two games since the move, but the newly minted top line has been a disappointment as a whole. All three guys were a -2 (combined -6) in the loss to Florida and a -1 (combined -3) in Tampa Bay. And, as mentioned earlier, Ovie has been pointless (no, not useless.)

On defense, we have seen the debut of Sami Lepisto, a smallish, smooth-skating, puck moving defender who is the exact antithesis of Milan Jurcina, the guy who was given the night off in favor of Lepisto. The rookie (whose name would be much easier to say if the accent was on the middle syllable instead of the first) had a solid outing, except for one shift when he had a lot of difficulty getting the puck out of the defensive zone. He looked unsure of his defensive coverage a couple times as well, but the Lightning were unable to take advantage. But he moved the puck well and did a good job of keeping the front of the net clear. All in all, his decent shot, slick skating, and on-ice vision make Lepisto a very enticing prospect with enough upside to make him an NHL regular. Whether or not he'll have an opportunity to prove himself this year remains to be seen, especially with the inevitable return of Tom Poti.

Lepisto could prove a valuable asset if the Capitals are unable to come to terms with Mike Green or Shaone Morrisonn. Both are slated to become restricted free agents this offseason and the former is likely to receive A LOT of leaguewide interest if he makes it to market. With a pipeline full of highly touted defensive prospects like Lepisto, Karl Alzner, Josh Godfrey, and Keith Seabrook, the Capitals have enough talent that they can afford to let Green go and take the draft pick compensation if the asking price is too high.  

The last time Washington faced a similar situation, they allowed Scott Stevens to depart for St. Louis back in the summer of 1990. The Capitals received five first round draft picks as compensation, which they used to select Sergei Gonchar and Brendan Witt, among others. Faced with an excessive contract offer (Kevin Lowe, we're watching you) tendered to Green, George McPhee would be wise to take the picks. But that's something to be dealt with if that time comes.

Sixty games down and 22 to play, the Capitals (as well as every other Southeast team) are right in the thick of things. With the trade deadline approaching, injuries taking their toll, and a relative lack of NHL-ready players in Hershey, McPhee will no doubt be entertaining any and all offers. If Kolzig continues his excellent play, he won't be among the players headed out of town. But the poor secondary contributions (which have not been sufficiently addressed in-house) could bring a veteran or two in.

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