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Washington Capitals          Sunday, March 30, 2008           Florida Panthers

With Win, Tables Are Set For a Southeast Showdown

Huet shutout (Associated Press photo)Cristobal Huet and the Washington Capitals haven't gotten much help lately. But they haven't cared.

Seeing win after win on an astounding six game road trip do little to move them closer to a playoff berth has not dampened the spirit and drive of the Capitals in the least. Knowing full well that the Boston Bruins already earned two more points earlier in the day was little more than motivation for Washington, who closed out their six game road trip with win number five.

Huet was as solid as it gets in goal, stopping all 32 Florida shots en route to his second shutout in a Caps sweater. Just as impressive was Huet's handling of the puck. His pass first, leave the puck second mentality was on flawless display as he toyed with Panther forecheckers all evening long. 

While Huet avoided the long up-ice feeds we've seen from him for the most part, he made perfect decisions with the puck on dump-ins, and the Capitals ended up in control as a result. At one point while shorthanded, Huet cuffed down a shot and quickly dropped it for Jeff Schultz in the corner to make a clear. Does Olie make that play? Well, that's why Olie's not playing.

Viktor Kozlov got the Capitals on the board in the second period rewarding some excellent work down low from the temporary line he formed with Brooks Laich and Matt Cooke. The trio came together as a result of a failed power play attempt. With Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin resting on the bench, Kozlov was sent out with the two grinders. It was the best shift of the entire game from any Capitals' line, however it was also the only time we saw the three on ice together.

It didn't matter for Kozlov, who also assisted on Mike Green's 18th goal and Alex Ovechkin's 62nd. Ovechkin is now just one goal shy of breaking a 15 year old NHL record for most goals by a left wing in a season as he is set to match or eclipse Luc Robitaille's mark of 63. Ovie also added a beautiful assist on Green's score, bumping him up to 109 points -- six ahead of Evgeni Malkin in the race for the Ross.

Green, meanwhile, regained sole possession of the goal scoring lead among defensemen, registering his first score in 15 games. Incidentally, he was the last defenseman to score for Washington -- marking the end of a streak of 47 straight goals from forwards. Green now sits one ahead of Dion Phaneuf and two up on Zdeno Chara and Andrei Markov for the lead. On a related note, Dustin Byfuglien of Chicago also has 18 goals and is still listed as a defenseman though he has spent nearly two months on the wing. So that can't possibly count as a tie for the lead. Or can it?

The win is Washington's 8th in 9 games, placing them as the hottest team in the entire NHL. The fact that six of these games came away from home make the feat that much more impressive. Unfortunately for the Capitals, Boston has also hit stride with three straight wins and Philadelphia managed another late comeback to pick up two more points (after squeezing out one in New Jersey the evening before with help from an empty netter.)

However, and this is a BIG however, the Carolina Hurricanes lost to Tampa Bay. This loss sets up the biggest game for Washington since the 2003 Playoffs on Tuesday. The Capitals will host the Hurricanes in an effort to pull into a tie for first with Carolina if they win. There is one caveat, though.

Both teams would be tied with 90 points and both would have two games left. But Carolina would still hold an edge in wins, 42 to 41, for the first tiebreaker. And if they end up tied in points and wins, the 'Canes win the division because of a better head to head to record. 

But perhaps fate is on the Capitals side as they won their 40th game of the season: The last time the Caps won more than 40 was the last time they won the Southeast.





Washington Capitals          Friday, March 28, 2008           Tampa Bay Lightning

Ah Ah Ah, Two is the Number of the Day

Count von CountI was looking for a video or sound clip but came up empty. This was the best I could do for the number two. That's how many points the Caps came away with, leaving them that many points behind Carolina, Philadelphia, and Boston. Hence, two - the number of the day.

Another number that's a bit worrisome for the Capitals is one. That's how many games all three of those teams have in hand over the Capitals, who are 11-4-0 since the trade deadline. Although Washington remains on the outside looking in with Boston winning as well, there are three teams the Caps can catch, not just one - essentially tripling their chance of making the postseason, although tiebreakers decrease the odds just a bit.

So what will it take for the Capitals to get in? First we must examine the tiebreaking scenarios:

  1. Tiebreaker 1 - WINS: The Capitals are currently tied with both Boston and Philly, but trail the Hurricanes by 2. A tie in wins leads to the next tiebreaker.
  2. Tiebreaker 2 - HEAD TO HEAD RECORD: Here is where the Caps are in a ton of trouble. Philly has 5 points to Washington's 4. Boston does too. Carolina has 9 points to Washington's 6, so even with a win in the remaining game the Capitals can't catch the 'Canes. It is impossible for the Caps to win any of these tiebreakers.
  3. Tiebreaker 3 - GOALS FOR vs. GOALS AGAINST: It can't make it this far, but if it did the Capitals could be alright. Current differentials - Philadelphia (+12), Washington (even), Carolina (-2), Boston (-10).

Now let's look at what-ifs. The chart below illustrates the help the Capitals need depending on their record in the four remaining games:

Washington Capitals Playoff Hopes

As far as the schedule goes, the Bruins and Flyers are stacked. Boston faces New Jersey, Ottawa twice, and Buffalo twice. Philadelphia gets New Jersey twice, Pittsburgh twice, and the Islanders. Carolina, like Washington, gets to beat up on the Southeast Division the rest of the way.

The Capitals are clearly still in the hunt but they must expect to win no fewer three the rest of the way. One thing that is awfully encouraging is how the Capitals are not withering away the way Buffalo has. The Caps' comeback doesn't appear to be falling short (yet) the way Florida's and Toronto's has. And most importantly, they have responded despite losing a game to the refs, losing a game to an "own goal", and losing a game by five to another young team who isn't headed for the postseason.





Washington Capitals          Thursday, March 27, 2008           Washington Capitals Game Day

Visting a Familiar Face - Get Used to It

Eight and a half years ago, we witnessed the sudden emergence of the Washington Capitals' first ever homegrown prodigy, an undrafted guy not many ever heard of.

After playing four years at Princeton University (not exactly an NHL supply chain) and all of six games in the AHL, Jeff Halpern found himself in a perfect situation during the 1999-2000 season. Halpern, 23 years old at the time, anchored one of the best checking and puck-cycling lines in Capitals history, centering Ulf Dahlen and Steve Konowalchuk.

Halpern's first two seasons, spent entirely with Dahlen and Kono, also happened to be his best. His third season, however, was marred by injury when he tore his ACL in January. That was also Dahlen's last season in Washington. Kono was around for one more before being traded early the next season. No longer teamed with experienced linemates, Halpern was never quite the same.

But he hung around through the fire sale and lockout before being promoted to captain during Alex Ovechkin's rookie season. We all know the lack of success of that first rebuilding season, so Halpern decided to leave the team he grew up rooting for when he became unrestricted at the end of the season.

What follows is why Caps fans, no matter how much they've hated on Olie Kolzig recently, should absolutely love the big fella.

In an interview Wednesday, Halpern said, "Getting into the playoffs and getting a chance to win a Stanley Cup is everything. That's a big part of why I went to Dallas. So another season without getting that chance was a tough pill to swallow."

One more losing season? He can't stick around for that? Couldn't he tell Ovechkin was special and would lead this team back into contention?

Halpern left town when Olie re-signed and stuck it out. This is just the thing to give the Capitals a little extra motivation now that they'll see Halpy and the Lightning six times a year, after seeing him only once since his departure.

The former Capital has pulled a one-eighty after Dallas sent him to Tampa Bay as part of the Brad Richards trade.  Since the move, the Stars have sucked (putting it bluntly) and so have the Lightning. But Halpern has been brilliant, scoring 7 goals and 8 assists in 13 games and figuring in on 41% of Tampa's goals since arriving.

Halpern won't make the playoffs this year, but he gets to play spoiler in trying to prevent his former team from doing just that. After all, he didn't want to be in Washington because he wouldn't make the postseason.  

Certainly he doesn't want to sound like a fool.





Washington Capitals          Wednesday, March 26, 2008           Carolina Hurricanes

A Three Point Affair

It's an awful shame to see the Capitals' division hopes take a massive hit when they outplayed the Hurricanes at every turn (other than physically, or so the hit stats say).

First, they ran into Cam Ward, who was in Conn Smythe Trophy-winning form, as has been the case during Carolina's unexpected run. Add to that a couple of the ugliest goals  imaginable scored by the 'Canes and you have a 2-2 game headed for overtime.

Game. Set. Match. 

The extra point that the eventual loser gains will likely be enough to cost a team deserving of moving considerably closer a chance at winning the division. Take away that point, and the Caps could have had a somewhat realistic chance of catching up. One more head to head matchup remains.

But now things have become much more difficult because the Capitals likely will have to make up five points (not just the four that they currently trail by) in the last five games. This is because Carolina has three more wins than the Caps -- the NHL's first tiebreaker. But this is just one three-point game, you say. The Capitals have earned eight extra points this season because of it, you say.

Well, take a look at Philadelphia and Boston (both of whom won to make life for the Caps that much tougher). Both those teams have gained 10 extra overtime/shootout loss points compared with Washington's eight. If the Bruins and Flyers weren't handed those freebie points, the Capitals would be tied with Boston and two points back of Philly. That's much easier to overcome with just five games remaining.

It could be worse, though. The Capitals that showed up in Chicago last week could have been on display in Carolina. But since the Caps won, they have hope. 

However Boston and Philly also won. What the Caps need most is help.





A Roy Family Reunion

Like Father




Like Son



Only difference (and it's a small one) is that Chris Osgood was a much more willing participant than poor Bobby Nadeau. Jonathan Roy, who is coached by his father Patrick, was suspended for seven games while daddy got nailed for five.


Washington Capitals          Tuesday, March 25, 2008           Washington Capitals Game Day

Time to Put Up or Shut Up

For weeks we've been saying that every game is a "must win". But Washington hasn't won every won of those games and they are still in position to reach the playoffs, both as an eight seed and a three seed (as division winner). A loss tonight to Carolina will essentially eliminate the latter possibility while pushing the former further from reach. So to keep options open, this is indeed the Capitals' first "must win" of the season.

It's been a while since the Capitals have seen the 'Canes, so what's the deal with this Carolina team that has been defying logic of late? 

They traded away two integral pieces (Mike Commodore and Cory Stillman) of their Stanley Cup run due to their looming free agent status. They started winning. Almost immediately thereafter, captain Rod Brind'Amour's season was done with a knee injury. The next game, it was Justin Williams' knee that gave out. Didn't matter, they kept winning. But the injury bug didn't stop there. Most recently, Ray Whitney and Matt Cullen have hit the injury list. But Carolina keeps winning.

Before the trade and subsequent injury problems, the Hurricanes' record was 27-27-4. Since then, Carolina is an unrelenting 14-3-1. With this game taking place in Raleigh, you may be wondering how well they have fared at home. Well, the 'Canes have gone 11-1-1 at the RBC Center since the All-Star Break.

So the odds are stacked against the Capitals, who with a win will move to within three points of Carolina. With a loss, they'll be seven back with five games to play -- almost assuredly ending their chances for a third Southeast Division title, and the first since 2000-01.

As far as the eighth seed goes, every team seeking the spot is in action tonight, but none head to head. In a best case scenario (Philly loses in New York, Boston falls in Toronto, Buffalo gets doused by Ottawa, and Florida flounders in Tampa Bay), the Capitals would be tied with Boston for eighth, two points back of Philly for seventh, and three points ahead of the Sabres and Panthers.

Of course Boston and Philly are where the Caps are looking most, as those are the teams that need to be caught. If the Bruins lose and the Caps win, yes they would be tied, but Boston still owns a game in hand. Philly would hold a two point lead but both the Flyers and Caps have an equal number of games remaining.

Now the worst case scenario. The Caps could drop to 11th place, four points out of 8th. And their hopes of catching Carolina are all but done. A "must win" game tonight? You betcha.





National Hockey League Trade Deadline                        Sunday, March 23, 2008

Trade Deadline Update

The holiday weekend features limited action around the league, giving us plenty of time to reflect on those deadline deals that took place nearly a month ago. We all know well the Capitals were major players with a pretty good degree of success. But how's Matt Pettinger doing now? And for that matter, how are other big names around the league fairing in their new colors? To find out, click on each trade to learn more about its impact.

  • TO Washington: Cristobal Huet
    TO Montreal: '09 2nd-rounder




Washington Capitals          Saturday, March 22, 2008           Atlanta Thrashers

Sweet, Sweet Sixty

Exactly one week after dismantling a reeling Atlanta Thrashers squad, the Capitals travelled to Atlanta in dire need of another victory. For 40 minutes, it looked as though the Caps just weren't with it for the second time in three nights. But Alex Ovechkin sparked the Capitals first third period rally to win in over a calendar year, having failed in their previous 50 tries.

It was an historic evening as Ovechkin reached the 60 goal plateau, the first to do so in over a decade. His momentous goal, the second of the night, was scored with nine minutes remaining in the third. This began a sudden four goal outburst for Washington that encompassed barely more than eight minutes -- just enough time to tie the game, go ahead, and add an empty netter to earn a much deserved two points. How deserved? Twenty-three third period shots deserved.

Ovechkin and his linemates, Nicklas Backstrom and Viktor Kozlov, took control of the game particularly in the third. For the game, the top line combined for 4 goals, 4 assists, a +11 rating, and 20 shots (two more than the entire Thrashers team had). Shaone Morrisonn and Mike Green each finished a +3 on the night, with Green picking up two assists while firing seven shots on goal.

But what about the second line of Sergei Fedorov, Alexander Semin, and Tomas Fleischmann? Zero points on just four shots with a combined -5 rating. With that type of second line play, the Capitals' goal of reaching the playoffs will be that much more difficult. But this game was no aberration for the trio. In 11 games in March, they have combined for just three goals while the rest of Washington's forwards have tallied 33 times. By the way, the forwards have scored Washington's last 39 goals.

Looking to the out-of-town scoreboard, the Capitals got half the help they needed. Buffalo lost to Toronto, allowing the Capitals to hurdle back into the ninth spot. Philadelphia, however, outlasted the New York Rangers in overtime to climb into the seventh spot while maintaining a two point edge over Washington. Both Buffalo and Philadelphia own a game in hand over the Caps. The idle Boston Bruins sit in the eighth seed, one point ahead of the Capitals. The slumping B's own two extra games over the Caps though.

The Capitals look to close the gap on division leading Carolina when they travel to Raleigh on Tuesday, the first of two key head to head affairs. Both teams are off until then and will be plenty rested.

A FEW NOTES FROM THE GAME:
  • Jeff Schultz led the Capitals in hits with three. Yes, I said Jeff Schultz. He has been playing the body a bit more of late, something he needs to vastly improve upon this offseason.


  • Steve Eminger played quite well in his first appearance in ten games while Sami Lepisto was a healthy scratch. Lepisto, less than one year Eminger's junior, doesn't seem ready to withstand the rigors of the NHL. To think Emmy had four seasons under his belt by the time he was Lepisto's age.


  • The Capitals got no help from their specialty teams. Their penalty killers allowed a goal on just two shorthanded situations while their power play went 0 for 4 while generating only three shots and giving up a shorty.


  • Cristobal Huet played his worst game as a Capital, allowing three goals on only 18 shots. He had only seven worse outings (save percentage-wise) over the past three years. In comparison, Olie Kolzig had nine worse outings this year alone.




Washington Capitals          Friday, March 21, 2008           Washington Capitals Game Day

All For Naught?

We've reached that point of the season where each win seems essential and a single loss feels catastrophic. Those four straight wins the Washington Capitals collected were great, but they just don't seem like enough. Truth is, they may not be.

The Capitals are playing catchup. Therefore they are in reliance of the play of those teams ahead of them, namely Carolina, Boston, Philadelphia, and Buffalo -- with an honorable mention to Florida who has caught fire and is stepping on the heels of the Caps. But it's not just the Panthers, winners of seven straight before losing to Carolina in OT, who are playing well: Buffalo has won three straight, Philly has points in 10 of 13, and Carolina has won eight of nine. So what happens if the pace continues?

Let's assume each team finishes out the season playing as they have of late. What if we were to prorate each team's remaining games to reflect the results of that same number of recent games (i.e. Capitals have 7 games left and are 4-3-0 in their past seven games. Add 4-3-0 to their current record to achieve their final standing. Make sense?) Though this is a rather rudimentary way to predict playoff seedings, especially since head to head matchups are not taken into account, this does shed a little bit of light on these teams' winning trends.

Hypothetical Final 2007-08 Eastern Conference Standings

Again, there is no statistical probability used in determining the results nor is scheduling accounted for, just recent success. So despite winning four of their last five, Washington's wildly inconsistent play of late may prove their undoing.

After all, they say a picture is worth a thousand words. In this case the picture is a chart, and that idiom holds true if the words "MAYBE NEXT YEAR" are repeated 333 and a third times.





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