Monday, March 10, 2008          

Out With a Bang

As I've always said:  If you're gonna go out, go out with a bang.

The Capitals must have been listening -- specifically Nicklas Backstrom. One day after racking up five penalties in little more than six minutes to blow a lead in Boston, the rookie of the year candidate (perhaps no longer) perfectly placed a game losing rebound in the net behind his own goaltender.

Fortunately for Nicklas Backstrom and the future of the Capitals organization, we're living in America and not Columbia.

There's really not a whole lot to say about the two most disastrous Washington losses since the lockout. All we can do is make sense of it all and figure out what needs to happen in order for the Capitals to reach the playoffs. Man, it seemed so possible just a couple weeks ago.

Forget about the 8th seed. Too many variables are necessary for Washington to leapfrog two teams that each hold a game in hand over the Capitals, who sit six points back. With two games against Carolina and a game in hand, the Southeast Division title is still the most manageable path in. So what might it take?

Let's say the Capitals do the unthinkable and win their remaining 12 games. Carolina could still stave off Washington with 17 points in their 11 remaining games. But in their 11 most recent contests, the 'Canes earned exactly 17 points. Not exactly a viable option.

But what if Carolina hits a rough patch and goes .500 (a record only five NHL teams sit on or below this season) the rest of the way. The Capitals could make it in with 18 points in their last 12 games. The Caps' best 12 game stretch (Dec. 26-Jan. 21) of the season saw them rack up 19 points. So while that seems more feasible, remember this: Carolina MUST play as poorly as the fifth worst team in the league the rest of the way for this hypothetical to become reality. Not likely for a club that has gone 15-6-1 over the past eight weeks.

This loss, less than 24 hours after an equally devasting defeat, could be the spark that ignites a winning streak of historical proportions -- stranger things have happened. More likely, however, is this marks the beginning of a lightning quick end to an up and down season that finished as badly as it began.

         Sunday, March 9, 2008          

A Major Meltdown

The toughest pill to swallow in a game like this, obviously, stems from the inequality of the penalties dealt to Washington in the waning minutes of the game.

It's easy to chide the ref, Boston native Chris Rooney, and say he blew (no pun intended) the game for the Caps. It's just as elementary to cast blame towards 'Alternate Captain' Donald Brashear, whose overzealous lift check caught the mug of Boston's David Krejci, resulting in a double minor. What proved most costly was Brash's jab on Shane Hnidy, who don't forget decked Alex Ovechkin back in the first period and never quite received due payback.  Suddenly, the veteran leader was in the box with the extremely uncommon triple-minor.

It's fair to say that Brashear earned his six minutes at a time when he should be earning the 'A' on his sweater, but Brashear's penalties alone weren't the back breaker. John Erskine's ensuing hooking penalty was weak and likely would have been a no call had the game been played elsewhere, or if Rooney was elsewhere. But Erskine went to the box and Boston tied the game at one.

So the Caps were whistled for four minors in a span of 1:13 with about five minutes to play. This is when refs are usually looking for makeup calls, and they could not have asked for a more perfect opportunity when Zdeno Chara (whose shot seems to get more terrifying every time I see it) may have tried to play the puck with a broken stick. A borderline call? Perhaps, but following the cheapie to Erskine on top of the Brashear mess, it's an infraction most refs would not ignore. Rooney and partner in blind crime, Rob Martell, did.

By the three minute mark of the third, the Capitals were killing the last two of their eight minutes worth of penalties. They lost their 1-0 lead but were holding on to try for a point and an overtime win. That's when Tom Poti, yet another vet who lost his cool down the stretch, blatantly slashed Glen Murray's stick...twice. The second whack broke it in half. 

Without hesitation, I will concede that it was a penalty. But here's where the officiating screwed the Caps again. On the same play, Boyd Gordon was hauled down along the boards with a stick in his gut, but when the whistle blew, it was just for the Poti penalty. At least call coincidental friggin' minors on that one. A 4-on-3 for 1:55 is enough good fortune for Boston to have a great chance of scoring the go-ahead goal. Instead, the Bruins were awarded yet another 5-on-3, and again they took full advantage.

Sure the Caps screwed themselves, but the refs decided to bury them in it. What is most heartbreaking is this type of loss on a day that Carolina and Philadelphia (along with Boston) won to further distance themselves from the Capitals. Heck, even Buffalo picked up an overtime point. Bad timing for a meltdown.

Saturday, March 8, 2008

After an Explosion, Will the Caps Do It Again?

It's been just five days since the Washington Capitals trounced the Boston Bruins by the most lopsided margin in the league this season. Thanks to odd late season scheduling, the Bruins didn't have to wait long for a rematch. But will they again be overmatched for a second consecutive meeting?

Looking at past history, the likely answer is no. 

Washington's last three wins by a margin of five or more goals, dating back to 2003-04, were all followed by a loss in the rematch. But we all know how inept the Capitals have been in recent seasons, so it must be due to their ineptitude that they can't make it two in a row. Right?

Not exactly. 

Around the NHL this season, teams that have won by a five goal margin came out victorious in the rematch just 12 times in 33 games. And only once was the victory of similar dominance -- San Jose beat Phoenix by a five spot, followed three days later with a six goal shelling of the 'Yotes. But that is unquestionably a rarity.

How can a team possibly play so darn well against an opponent one night and come nowhere close to that effort in the subsequent matchup? 

Blame it on overconfidence. Blame it on unpreparedness. Heck, even blame it on the loss of your 6'5" faceoff winning demon who will miss the rematch with a broken thumb. Whichever way you slice it, this afternoon's contest will be no walk in the park.

In referencing the Capitals' loss of David Steckel for 2-3 weeks, Bruce Boudreau is tasked with reworking his line combos. Brooks Laich will be back at center, opening a spot on the wing for either Tomas Fleischmann or Quintin Laing -- or perhaps both if Eric Fehr or anyone else is given the night off.

The potential reappearance of Fleischmann causes me to reflect back to that oh so memorable day when the Capitals acquired three new faces for their playoff thrust. Remember that 4-1 win over Minnesota? You know, the one game that Fleischmann, Laich, and Fehr played together? 

They were on the ice for all four Caps goals in what has been Laich's, Fleischmann's, and Fehr's most effective individual game of each of their careers. As quickly as they came, they were no more, with two of the three being healthy scratches at least once in the four games since. Seems rational to at least try reuniting the trio.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Eyeing Another Way In

On Monday, the Washington Capitals exploded against a goaltender that seemingly owned as much of the team as Ted Leonsis does. Boston's Tim Thomas had gone 8-0-1 with a 1.78 GAA and .940 save percentage. Key word: had. 

Again the Capitals were tasked with facing another goalie who had their number. Before this contest, Ryan Miller was an equally impressive 7-1-0 against the Caps (despite loftier numbers than Thomas'.) Though Miller did not resemble a colander as Thomas and his partner Alex Auld did two days before, the Capitals managed to buck yet another trend.

And what would a win in boo-bird Buffalo be without Alex Ovechkin stirring the pot? Now just six goals shy of 60, Ovechkin has six goals and three assists in just three games since ending his career long goal scoring drought. Linemate Nicklas Backstrom connected on another "hailmary" feed to Ovechkin after the pair teamed up for two similar plays in the Boston win. Thank goodness for the abolished two-line pass.

Since Ovechkin and Backstrom were reunited with Viktor Kozlov four games ago, the line has gone gangbusters. The three have combined to score 10 goals and 13 assists and are an astounding +27 (+9 each) in those four games. That'll help the ol' win column.

With Cristobal Huet out of the lineup with back spasms, Olie Kolzig got the start and stood on his head -- even taking a knee to the noggin at one point. Kolzig was credited with making 25 stops, nearly half of which were from the deep slot. Olie made several brilliant saves in the third period to keep the lead intact. And for the first time in I don't know how long, he actually caught a break. On the reviewed goal late in the third period, one angle clearly showed the puck across the goal line before the whistle blew, but it was ruled no goal.

The win kept pace with Carolina, who toppled the fading Atlanta Thrashers. The Hurricanes just so happen to have the league's fourth best record in the last ten games, keeping the Capitals at bay for the moment. But Washington has suddenly found themselves within striking distance of the eighth spot in the East as well. They are just two points behind eighth place Philadelphia and one back of ninth place Buffalo -- both teams have been unravelling a bit of late, perhaps paving the way for a second Southeast team to reach the promised land.

A FEW NOTES FROM THE GAME:

• Bruce Boudreau really wanted Ovechkin to net his first career back-to-back hat tricks. Ovechkin was on the ice after the goal was disallowed with 2:49 to go in the third. He didn't leave the ice until there were only 18 seconds remaining -- a 2 minute 31 second shift with an empty net staring at him. But it was not to be.



• John Erskine has fingers pointed at him whenever he screws up (which has been more often than not this year,) but tonight he gets two thumbs up. He saved a goal when he cleared a puck that had gotten through Kolzig and was sound positionally in posting a +2 rating for the second straight night.



• Whereas the the Caps' top line has carried the team, the second line has done practically nothing to help. In the last three games, the trio of Sergei Fedorov, Alexander Semin, and Brooks Laich have combined for two goals (both by Laich vs. Boston,) one assist, and a -6 rating. Time for a retooling?



• We saw something we may never see again. Well, we can only hope we don't ever see it again. A Jeff Schultz breakaway.



• What's the next worst thing to a Jeff Schultz breakaway? A David Steckel breakaway. That guy has some of the slowest feet I've seen. It takes him five strides to begin making forward progress.



• The Capitals continue to dominate in the faceoff circle, winning 65 percent. Only two players lost more than they won: Donald Brashear and Matt Bradley (each lost their only attempt.)

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

What More Can You Ask For?

The Washington Capitals have clearly become sick of all the close losses to the Boston Bruins over recent years. Sixteen straight games were decided by two goals or less, 11 of which were one goal affairs, and Washington came out the victor only three times. So much for that.

The Capitals rattled one of the league's premier netminders, who entered the game second in the NHL in save percentage and made his first All-Star Game appearance just five weeks ago. Tim Thomas had been even better against the Capitals, posting 8 career wins vs. the Caps -- more than against any other team.

But just 32 seconds into the game, Matt Cooke found the back of the net, foreshadowing the lousy night Bruins goaltending was about to have. Not a bad way to score your first goal as a Cap. Less than six minutes later, the new rookie leading scorer and the reestablished league leading scorer set the tone for themeselves. Nicklas Backstrom found Alex Ovechkin with a home run feed up the gut and Ovie made Thomas look very ordinary to give the Caps a lead. Ovechkin would later return the favor, setting Backstrom up for his first goal in 21 games.

The game became a runaway in short order, something that can be good and bad for Washington. The dominant performance gives Washington much needed confidence, but they need to come out the same way every single game. If they do come out storming, the score will never again be 10-2. If they lay back a bit and become complacent, they'll lose. It's that time of year.

The Capitals have just gotten started in a stretch of interdivisional games against some very tough opponents. At a minimum, maintaining pace with Carolina is a must before the Southeast Division matchups begin to close out the season. This game is a great start, but there's a long way to go.

A FEW NOTES FROM THE GAME:

• Nearly the entire roster would get into the action, as you might expect when a 10-spot has been posted. The three who didn't: Milan Jurcina, Boyd Gordon, and Sergei Fedorov. Fedorov, as well as his linemates Alexander Semin and Brooks Laich, were the only minus players on the team last night.



• Winner of 11 of 16 draws, Fedorov has been excellent on faceoffs with the Caps, as he has been all season. He gives the Capitals three of the top 16 faceoff men in the NHL. David Steckel ranks 8th, Fedorov is 10th, and Gordon is 16th.



• With his hat trick, Ovechkin not only reached and surpassed the 50 goal mark for his second time, he has also righted himself on the chase for 60. Now just eight goals away, he is on pace for 64.



• Matt Cooke made his presence known, not only scoring half a minute into the game, but adding two assists and a team high four hits as well -- in only 10 minutes of ice time.



• Cristobal Huet, who stopped 18 of 20 Boston shots, was not on the ice or even the bench for the third period. It's been said that he has minor back spasms, but in a recent update from Kettler, Tarik El-Bashir of the Washington Post reports that Huet is not practicing today. Not the best of news, but at least the Caps have two healthy vets back there. Good looking out, McPhee.



• Zdeno Chara of Boston had good intentions when he challenged Donald Brashear after the Capitals got out to an early 2-0 lead. But, he forgot he's their best player and they need him on the ice. The Capitals promptly scored twice more while he watched alongside Brashear in the box.



• Matt Bradley had his first two goal game in two years. Believe it or not, Brads accomplished this twice in his first season with the Caps back in 2005-06. He scored seven goals that season.



• Aside from taking over the rookie scoring lead for the first time, Backstrom has moved to 13th in the NHL in assists as well.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Upon Further Examination...

Saturday night's defeat at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs marked one of those "one step forward, one step back" kind of deals for the Washington Capitals. After closing within three points of Carolina, the Caps were back to five behind just like that. With little more than a month and my lucky number (16) of games remaining, it has become evident that the road to the playoffs is through Carolina. Squeaking into the eighth seed is unrealistic at this point -- too many teams to pass, too many of them playing well.

So in knowing that the Capitals must overtake the Hurricanes to make the show, let's take a look at what's left for both teams and hopefully find a bit of statistical optimism for Washington.

THE SCHEDULES:

• Carolina has 14 games remaining, half at home. The combined winning percentage (weighted to reflect multiple games against the same team) of their remaining opponents is .513
• Washington has 16 games remaining, half at home. Combined weighted winning percentage of remaining opponents is .532

ADVANTAGE: Carolina

SEASON PERFORMANCE VERSUS REMAINING OPPONENTS:

• Carolina has faced six of their eight remaining opponents previously this season. Against these teams, their weighted winning percentage is .591 and they are sporting a losing record against one of the six teams.
• Washington has already faced seven of their ten remaining opponents. Against these teams, their weighted winning percentage is .430 including a losing record against six of the seven teams.

ADVANTAGE: Carolina

RECENT RECORD:

• Carolina made a significant trade which appeared to benefit the 'Canes long-term, not this year. They also lost their leader, Rod Brind'Amour for the season. Yet, Carolina is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games.
• Washington has struggled of late and appear to have peaked too early in the season. The Caps have gone 4-4-3 in their last 11 games.

ADVANTAGE: Carolina

This concise analysis pretty much tells the story -- and it's not a pleasant one for Washington. The Capitals are set to face teams they have had trouble beating. Carolina, meanwhile, has rolled through their remaining opponents. 

The Capitals will attempt to initiate a much needed winning streak against the Boston Bruins tonight. In a late season scheduling anomaly, this is the first of three meetings with the Bruins over the next two weeks. Not quite what the Capitals want to hear -- they have beaten Boston just once in nine games since the lockout.

On the bright side, Cristobal Huet may assume a heavy workload from this game on. Huet's record this season against the Capitals remaining opponents: 12-6-3 for a .643 win percentage. So just maybe...

Saturday, March 1, 2008

How It's Done

Sixty-two games. 

That's how long it's been since a Washington Capitals netminder last recorded a shutout. No other team in the NHL has waited so long. Thanks to newcomer Cristobal Huet, the wait is over.

Huet, holder of the third best career save percentage among active netminders, has arrived. His flawless debut triggered another Capitals victory. Huet was not peppered with rubber continuously, and a big reason for it is his excellent rebound control. Where Olie Kolzig and Brent Johnson would allow pucks to carom off them resulting in second and third shots, Huet ate everything up. His great positioning sure didn't hurt either.

The 32 year old pending UFA was rarely out of position. We've grown accustomed to seeing Kolzig and Johnson overplay the puck, ending up a couple feet away from the crease trying to sprawl back into position. Now we are treated to Huet and his smooth side to side movement. The only time he had to go spread eagle was on his breakaway denial of Zach Parise -- a poignant moment that kept the game scoreless, preventing the Devils from entering their feared lockdown mode.

Of course a shutout that requires only 18 saves means the defense did their job as well. With John Erskine sitting out a second straight victory, the defensive corps stalled every Devils opportunity -- a "taste of their own medicine" type of game. Aside from the breakaway, there were very few odd man rushes. Of the few the Devils had, most were short-circuited by slick backchecking and sound stick positioning. As a whole, the defensemen played wonderfully with no one in particular standing out -- a sign of a very solid effort all the way around.

The other Capitals' debut of the evening was that of number 91, Sergei Fedorov. I was a bit surprised to see Fedorov play physically in the first period, though for some unknown reason he was never officially credited with a hit. But I guess his checking explains why he's a two time Selke Trophy winner for best defensive forward, albeit a dozen years ago. It will take a bit of time for the offensive chemistry to take hold with Alexander Semin and others, but we got a sneak preview at the midway point of the game.

Fedorov's no look pass from the side wall makes the NHL's "secondary assist" seem like it has a place. His Russian buddy Semin took the pass and made a deft feed of his own to Mike Green, who scored to boost his cushion atop NHL defenseman goal scorers to two over Zdeno Chara. In case that name seems to have come from nowhere, don't worry -- it did. Just three weeks ago, Chara had only seven goals. He's added eight in ten games since to put some heat on Greenie.

Alex Ovechkin's stronghold atop all goal scorers remains well fortified despite a career long seventh game without a tally. He still owns a seven goal advantage over Atlanta's Ilya Kovalchuk, but his race for 60 is appearing to lose steam by the day. Ovie doesn't seem to have that extra gear at the moment, nor has he been effectively using his strength to create scoring chances for himself. He's been a step late and has fanned on more wrist shots during this drought than he has all season long. You'd have to assume he's going to pull himself together at some point soon -- he always has.

The big story is the two points earned. Coupled with Carolina's loss an evening earlier, the Capitals are now just three points back and still maintain their two games in hand advantage. Tonight, the Capitals host a resurgent Toronto Maple Leafs team that was not as active as some thought they would be at the trade deadline. With five wins in seven games, the Leafs have climbed right behind Washington in the Eastern Conference standings.

Facing another crucial affair, will Huet get the call and make his home debut? We've been led to believe that Olie would get the nod, but seriously. This is the playoff push...Huet was perfect...and this is exactly why the Capitals got him. But in case you were wondering, the Capitals have only one goaltender without a career losing record against Toronto. His name is Brent Johnson.

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